美元已經超跌30%

跌過頭 美元可望觸底反彈



【本報綜合報導】華爾街日報25日報導，美元在經過長期間的下跌後，它最近的反彈，讓投資人不確定是否代表一個新階段的開始。
在過去30年，這種反轉點也只出現幾次。自1970年後，美元由超強而衰弱，然後又反轉回來，每次一個方向可能長達五到七年。以這個標準，這次美元的下跌，已經超過六年，上次它對歐元的高峰是在2001年底，對一籃貨幣的高峰是在2002年。

普南投資經理金派克說，客戶最關切的，是現在是否為七年上漲波段的開始？許多人開始逐漸增加持有美元。美元自7月以來，對歐元升值8%，對日圓升值5%，主要是歐洲與日本的經濟前景不如美國。

美國經濟在房市下跌、信用緊縮下，實在說不上好。美元自2001年高峰到上個月，已經跌掉一半的價值，一些專家說，考慮經濟的基本面，美元已經超跌30%。



2008-08-26

investors were worried about billions of dollars in losses

Banks borrow less from Fed's emergency loan window

By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON — U.S. banks borrowed a bit less over the past week from the Federal Reserve's emergency lending program, while Wall Street firms passed for a third straight week.

The Fed reported Thursday that commercial banks averaged $17.51 billion in daily borrowing over the past week. That compared with a daily average of $17.70 billion in the previous week.

Investment houses for a third week did not take out any loans, a possible sign that pressures on them for short-term credit may be easing.

The Fed granted investment houses the privilege of getting direct loans from its emergency loan program in March.

At the time, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues were scrambling to deal with serious turbulence in financial markets where investors were worried about billions of dollars in losses from mortgage loans going sour.


The action followed a run on Bear Stearns that pushed what was the country's fifth largest investment bank to the brink of collapse. Bear Stearns was eventually taken over by JPMorgan Chase in a deal in which the Fed provided significant financial backing.

Originally, the borrowing privileges of investment banks were scheduled to end in mid-September, but the Fed recently extended those privileges into 2009 as the central bank deals with the most severe credit crisis to hit the country in decades.

For the week ending Aug. 20, the $17.51 billion in average daily borrowings by commercial banks represented a decline of $186 million from the average for the week ending Aug. 13.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

聯準會必須準備好升息

抗通膨 聯準會鷹派促升息


【路透科羅拉多州亞斯平十九日電】達拉斯聯邦準備銀行總裁費雪（Richard Fisher）19日在演講中說，如果食品及能源價格繼續上升，聯準會必須準備好升息。費雪是出名的鷹派，今年每次會議不是反對降息就是主張升息。
費雪在進步與自由基金會的演講中說，除非經濟能夠化解最近的成本上漲壓力，美國將面臨通膨預期擴散的風險，如果這個情況發生而聯準會沒有正面處理，「可能喪失大章鴽畯戔惆豲q膨的信心。」

他樂見最近油價下跌，並對美元回升不覺訝異。他認為目前的利率過低，將不足以阻止物價上漲。他也同意房市與信用市場仍然脆弱，使得市場預期聯準會未來幾個月會維持利率不變。但費雪認為，央行應該有提高利率對抗通膨，又不會導致金融市場崩潰的能力。

聯準會已經顯露期望維持利率不變，等待信用市場恢復正常，然後才回頭對付通貨膨脹。費雪說，「我們屆時可以修正，但需要很長的時間。」

聯準會除維持利率不變，也挹注銀行資金，希望維持金融體系流動性，費雪說這是短期措施，市場正常後就該取消。


2008-08-20

行業危機嚴重 高盛難倖免

高盛財測評級皆遭降
信貸危機持續 顧問業務收益將續跌 2008年8月13日


新聞專輯：「京奧盛事」

明報網站為迎接北京奧運，特別製作專輯，在比賽期間提供即時消息、獎牌龍虎榜、熱門新聞、奧運冷知識、專家評論等內容......萬勿錯過。
[ 立即進入 ]

【紐約十二日綜合外電】券商凱萬(Oppenheimer & Co.)重量級分析師惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)與德銀(Deutsche Bank)分析師馬約(Mike Mayo)同時宣稱，調降對華爾街投行金融業龍頭高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group, 股市代號 GS)第三財季的盈利業績預期。分析師表示，預計在信貸危機持續的情況下，高盛的承購包銷和交易顧問業務收益也將繼續下降。該負面消息導致高盛股價當日大跌逾6%，並拖累銀行金融類股板塊全體下滑。

行業危機嚴重 高盛難倖免

惠特尼表示，高盛第三季度每股盈利很可能為2.15元，大大低於她此前預測的3.54元；而馬約則將其對高盛第三季度的每股盈利預測從3.25元調降至2.40元。

自去年年初以來，全球各大銀行、金融巨頭已經蒙受了4,930億元的資本減記和信貸損失，抵押貸款支持證券﹑槓桿收購貸款和其他固定盈利資產價值下跌。

高盛38億元的第二季度虧損業績在全美四大投行證券公司中是最少的，但該集團的利潤也已連續兩個季度下跌。

惠特尼則指出﹕「高盛個人消費者客戶正在減少，股市整體走軟，顧問和承銷業務營收下降。」

馬約發表研究報告稱﹕「高盛集團未能避開資本市場的壓力，特別是在歐元區經濟增長很可能更加走軟的情況下。高盛的股票風險在各大證券公司中位於前列，大約為35%﹔而與此同時，股市正面臨更加重大的下跌時期。」　

股價目標亦遭降

該分析師將其對高盛的股價目標從209元大幅下調至192元，還將其對高盛08年全年的每股盈利預測從16.25元調降至14.60元，對09年的每股盈利預測從16.20元調降至15.55元。馬約還將其對高盛股票的評級從「買入」下調至「持有」。

此前，券商Ladenburg Thalmann分析師波夫(Richard Bove)剛將對高盛08財年的股價目標從15.45元下調了8.3%，至14.16元，並建議賣出高盛股票﹔而美林分析師莫斯考斯基(Guy Moszkowski)將高盛第三季度盈利預期從每股4.28元下調了35%，至2.80元，並將對高盛全年淨盈利的預測從每股17.71元下調至15.27元。今年迄今為止，高盛股價已經下跌了20%。

周二，該股報收167.30元，跌6.01%、合10.70元。

$2 trillion number from Nouriel Roubini

$1 trillion in losses? Bank on more
Wall Street should not be surprised to see pain in the financial sector linger on for much longer.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Make no mistake: The worst probably is not over for financial firms. Not by a long shot.

Many bank stocks have bounced sharply from their panic-induced lows of mid-July on hopes that the bleak second-quarter results represented the bottom.

But the bigger-than-expected losses reported by Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) this week, accompanied by dismal forecasts for the housing market, are strong indicators that there are likely more credit-related woes to come.

"The banks are still at the mercy of writedowns. I don't think the worst is over for financials yet," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist with Charles Schwab & Co.
Talkback: How much worse will it get for the nation's banks?

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that global losses tied to the credit crisis will be $945 billion. It's a widely used number, but Sonders thinks it's "potentially very conservative."

So how high could losses go? Sonders points to the $1.6 trillion forecast from hedge fund firm Bridgewater Associates or even the $2 trillion number from Nouriel Roubini, the highly-respected professor of economics at NYU's Stern School of Business.

And based on the losses already reported, we're not even halfway through the crisis.

But as scary as those predictions sound, it's actually somewhat healthy to see forecasts of bigger losses. Sonders said that at some point, the market will probably even begin to discount the fact that there are more losses ahead. They key is that investors have to expect them in the first place.

The biggest problem that the market has had to grapple with this year is that investors can't believe the numbers that banks are reporting.

We've been fooled a couple of times into thinking that banks finally had gotten the bulk of their most toxic loans off their balance sheets.

So instead of this death by a thousand cuts, we might just need a big bloodletting in the banking system.

As bad as this financial crisis seems right now, only eight banks have failed so far this year. That pales in comparison to the 534 that collapsed in 1989 - the height of the savings and loan debacle.

With that in mind, some think the Federal Reserve is perpetuating the problem in banking by keeping interest rates as low as they are. The Fed held its key benchmark fed funds rate at 2% following its meeting earlier this week.

John Lekas, founder and CEO of Leader Capital Management and portfolio manager of the Leader Short-Term Bond Fund, thinks the Fed should start raising interest rates before the end of the year.

Lekas argues that rate hikes would help to strengthen the dollar and reduce inflation pressures. He said it might also encourage more saving by consumers since rates on money-market accounts are closely tied to the fed funds rate.

And a stronger dollar, reduced inflation and increased savings would be a positive for the economy, even if the consequence was more short-term pain for banks.

"The Fed's current policy is to bail out the weak hands in banking and punish the savers in this country," said Lekas. "But this is a Band-Aid policy that is not addressing the real problem of inflation. The Fed should be trying to save the whole system, not save the overextended and irresponsible."

Nonetheless, as I've argued for some time in this column, the markets and economy don't need the financial sector to be at 100% health in order to hold up. There are plenty of other industries that have been doing well despite all the economic headwinds.

It was encouraging to see that stocks actually rallied early Friday morning despite the bad news from Fannie Mae. The continued decline in oil prices and a resurgent dollar are helping to minimize the pain in the financial sector.

Still, until more banks come truly clean about how much worse their losses will get and until the Fed stops trying to save banks that should be allowed to fail in a free market, expect the financial sector to keep bleeding red ink.

Vacation, all I ever wanted And on that cheery note, it's time for the Buzz to take a little break. I'll be back on Tuesday, Aug. 19. Enjoy those remaining lazy, hazy days of summer!

Issue #1 - America's Money: All this week at noon ET, CNN explains how the weakening economy affects you. Full coverage. To top of page
First Published: August 8, 2008: 11:00 AM EDT

Issue #1: America's Money

More pain at Fannie - $2.3 billion loss

The new math of lending

The dollar on the comeback trail

inflation has risen to its highest level in 17 years

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Federal Reserve leaves key interest rate at 2%
Updated 6h 50m ago | Comments89 | Recommend22 E-mail | Save | Print | Reprints & Permissions |


STANDING PAT





HOW THE FED WORKS

The Federal Open Market Committee: Who votes on setting interest rates?






Yahoo! Buzz Digg Newsvine Reddit FacebookWhat's this?By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve policymakers Tuesday left interest rates unchanged and stressed they are concerned about both the struggling economy and high inflation, suggesting rates are likely to remain where they are for some time.
Stocks jumped, in part because there was nothing in the Fed statement to scare or surprise investors. The Dow Jones industrial average, which rose early after a fall in oil prices, gained 332 points, or 2.9%. Its close at 11,616 recoups its loss of the last 10 trading days. Data showing the services sector shrank less than anticipated also helped stocks.

In a 10-1 decision, Fed policymakers left their target for short-term interest rates, which influence the cost of borrowing to buy everything from cars to condos to couches, at 2%. The Fed has kept the rate — the lowest since late 2004 — unchanged for more than three months.

In their post-meeting statement, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues noted the job market had weakened, financial markets were "under considerable stress" and tight credit, the housing downturn and high energy costs were "likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters."


WHAT THE FED SAID: Full text of the FOMC statement

At the same time, the Fed said that while inflation should "moderate," the outlook for prices was "highly uncertain" and inflation is a "significant concern."

Such dueling worries suggest the Fed does not plan to raise or lower rates in coming months.

John Derrick, director of research at U.S. Global Investors in San Antonio, says a rate increase is just as likely as a rate cut. "They really went right down the middle to straddle that fence as best they could," Derrick says. "They are basically in risk assessment mode."

Says Argus Research economist Richard Yamarone: "The only thing you can expect from the Fed for the next five months is open mouth policy: Talk up the dangers of inflation, but no action."

The Fed's decision comes as the economy struggles with rising unemployment, a continued housing slump, slowing consumer spending and stagnant manufacturing activity. At the same time, inflation has risen to its highest level in 17 years, led by higher food and energy costs.

There has been some good news this week on inflation. Oil prices on Tuesday fell $2.24 to $119.17, the lowest since May 2. The U.S. average price of a gallon of regular was $3.871, down a penny from Monday and 24 cents lower than the record hit July 17, according to motor club AAA.

But oil prices still are up 65% from a year ago, and prices for other items have also been rising. Such inflation concerns, along with tight credit, have kept borrowing rates, such as mortgages, elevated.

The Fed is in an interest-rate bind as the weak economy gives the Fed less latitude to raise interest rates to address inflationary pressures. The Fed typically cuts interest rates to boost the economy and raises them to halt inflation.

If the Fed in statements and speeches lets investors know they are on the inflation ball, that can still help, says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

"Although talking tough is all they can really do at this point, if it quells some of the inflation jitters in the marketplace, consumers could ultimately benefit through lower mortgage rates. And lower inflation would deliver some real returns to savers' pocketbooks," McBride says.

Mortgage rates have moved higher in recent months in response to inflation fears. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.52% last week, according to Freddie Mac. That was down from the 6.63% average seen in the prior week, but higher than the 6.06% average in the week the Fed made its last interest rate cut in late April.

The Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged means the average rate for certificates of deposit won't change much. Last week, the average rate for a 1-year CD was a meager 2.29%, while the average rate for a 5-year CD was 3.46%, according to Bankrate.com.

However, savers who are willing to shop around can find much better deals from banks that are trying to increase deposits. Wachovia Bank, for example, is offering 4.25% on a 1-year CD with a $5,000 minimum deposit.

Rates for home equity lines of credit, which averaged 5.54% last week, probably won't increase, which is good news for borrowers who have access to a home equity line. However, the collapse of the housing market has made it more difficult for homeowners to qualify for these loans. Some lenders have stopped offering home equity lines, and others have frozen home equity lines for their existing customers.

Some more downbeat economic news came Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management said activity in the service sector contracted for the second consecutive month in July, led by a significant drop in orders.

But conditions were a little brighter than in the previous month. ISM said its non-manufacturing index was 49.5 in July, up from 48.2 in June. Numbers below 50 suggest contraction; those above suggest expansion.

And although employers continued to cut workers, they did so at a slower pace in July than in June, the group said.

Still, the news wasn't good for the services sector, which accounts for the vast majority of U.S. economic activity, says Anthony Nieves, chairman of the ISM services panel and senior vice president for supply management at Hilton Hotels.

The index is "not really giving us any positive indication at this point," he says.

In other economic news, the International Council of Shopping Centers Tuesday said sales at retail chain stores last week were unchanged from the prior week.

The Fed's Board of Governors in Washington moved a step closer to becoming fully staffed Tuesday. Elizabeth Duke, formerly chief operating officer at TowneBank, a Virginia-based community bank, was sworn into office Tuesday morning.

All seven seats at the Fed Board have not been filled since June 2006 as members have resigned and nominees have not been voted on by the Senate.

There are now two open slots at the Fed. One of those is being filled by Gov. Randall Kroszner, who is awaiting confirmation to a new term after his seat expired earlier this year. Another slot will open up at the end of August when Gov. Frederic Mishkin is scheduled to leave the Fed.

Contributing: Sandra Block

北京人均GDP從2001年的3262美元提高到2007年的7654美元

奧運帶動經濟 京人均GDP今年將超八千美元

【星島網訊】2008北京國際新聞中心8月3日上午10時舉行“北京經濟發展戰略及實施情況”記者會，與會人員介紹，奧運為北京的經濟注入活力，北京人均GDP從2001年的3262美元提高到2007年的7654美元，今年將超過八千美元。

　　中國網報道，北京市發改委副主任、新聞發言人王海平，中關村科技園區管委會副主任、新聞發言人任冉齊，北京經濟技術開發區管委會副主任、新聞發言人趙昕昕出席記者會，向中外媒體介紹北京經濟發展戰略及實施情況，並答記者問。

　　與會人員顯示：七年來，北京保持了經濟社會平穩較快發展，為舉辦奧運會和殘奧會提供了有力支援；同時，奧運的籌辦又為北京發展注入了新的生機和活力。

　　北京的經濟實力顯著增強。
按可比價格計算，2007年經濟總量比2001年翻了一番，年均增長12.4%，今年將突破一萬億元。
人均GDP從2001年的3262美元提高到2007年的7654美元，今年將超過八千美元。

　　北京的發展的品質效益進一步提高。
地方財政收入從451.2億元擴大到1492.6億元，年均增長22%。
城市居民人均可支配收入從2001年的1.2萬元上升到2007年的2.2萬元，年均實際增長超過11%；農村人均純收入從5274元上升到9500元，年均實際增長超過9%。
價格總水準相對穩定，居民消費價格指數年均上漲0.7%，2007年為102.4%。
城鎮登記失業率始終保持2%以下。


星島環球網

2008-08-03